Picture: Felix Gross CAU

PRE-COLLAPSE

Slow sliding of volcanic flanks as PREcursor to catastrophic COLLAPSE

 

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Reflecting, Puzzling, and Exchanging:

PRE-COLLAPSE Writing Retreat, Workshop, and Field Trip in the Eifel Volcanic Region

From October 10th to 15th, the PRE-COLLAPSE research group gathered in the Eifel region for a writing retreat, workshop and field trip. Together, we shared meals, exchanged ideas, and had quiet moments as we delved into our research.

This website gives an overview of two research projects, led by Prof. Dr. Morelia Urlaub at GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Germany. They started in 2021 and will run for five years:

PRE -COLLAPSE -Slow sliding of volcanic flanks as PREcursor to catastrophic COLLAPSE- is a Starting Grant project supported by the European Research Council.

DO VOLCANOES COLLAPSE REPROGRESSIVELY? is supported by the Helmholtz Association of German research centres.

Picture Thore Sager (Geomar)

Volcanoes

are fast growing geological structures, resulting in mechanically unstable edifices.

As seen in 1980 at Mount St Helens, volcano flank collapses can form huge destructive landslides. On ocean islands or coastal volcanoes, these events pose an even greater threat: They can trigger ocean-wide tsunamis with extreme effects.

The most recent, but small example was the collapse of Anak Krakatau in Indonesia in 2019 that triggered a tsnunami resulting in 400 casualties.

Geological records show that volcanic flank collapses and their associated tsunamis are one of the largest and most disastrous natural processes on Earth, due to the huge energies involved. The potential impact of such a rare, unpredictable yet devastating natural disaster is largely ignored by society, leaving us totally unprepared even to detect the precursors of such an impending catastrophe.

Volcanic edifice instability can express in two ways:

Slow sliding of volcanic flanks towards the sea, as observed at numerous volcanoes worldwide or

sudden displacement of large masses in the water that can cause tsunamis with extreme and ocean-wide impacts.

Slow sliding and catastrophic collapse -

How are these two types of movement related?

How can we measure these mass movements?

 

Research Team

 

Morelia Urlaub

project leader

Séverine Furst

postdoctoral researcher

Jens Karstens

postdoctoral researcher

Sylvain Mayolle

postdoctoral researcher

Bruna Pandolpho

doctoral researcher

 
 

Elisa Klein

doctoral researcher

Megan Campbell

doctoral researcher

Fiene Matthies

doctoral researcher

Emma Hadré

doctoral researcher

Christina Bonanati

research communication

 

From the volcanic peak in the sky to its base in the deep ocean.

 

Crossing the shoreline to cover the entire volcanic edifice.

 

numerical modeling

simulation of flank sliding and its interaction with the magma system

field observations

study of shoreline-crossing interior structures of the volcanoes based on observational data

laboratory experiments

incorporation of rock mechanical behaviours at shear velocities matching those of slowly sliding flanks

 
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Societies prepared for landslide-induced tsunamis.

Flank collapses of coastal or island volcanoes occur at low frequency but can have extreme impacts!

More and more people settle in coastal areas and society increasingly depends on global maritime transport and associated coastal infrastructure: The hazard that flank collapses pose to our civilisation is high and will increase in the future!

Because historical records of large collapses are scarce, their potential hazard is not as obvious as for very common events such as volcanic eruptions or earthquakes. Nevertheless, catastrophic collapses have occurred in the geologic past and will continue to occur in the future.

While most volcanoes in densely populated areas are intensively monitored to predict eruptions, flank collapses are not routinely considered in monitoring programs or hazard assessments. This is primarily due to a lack of understanding of the causes of flank collapses, leaving us unable to identify and interpret potential precursors.

Given the extreme direct and indirect hazards posed by flank collapses, there is an urgent need to both:

Assess the hazards and develop early warning strategies!

Even though a large part of the world’ s population lives on the coasts, the dynamic events such as earthquakes, landslides, tsunamis, are so little understood and studied.
— Dr Morelia Urlaub
 
 

Research Partners

 

Thomas Walter & Pia Victor

 

 

Matt Ikari

Julia Morgan

 
 

Alessandro Bonforte & Francesco Maccaferri

Felix Gross & Florian Petersen

 

Marc-André Gutscher